prediction and possibility - 2

empires rise and fall, and heroes and villains come and go, but the true history of the human race is the history of technology, which makes human lives longer, safer, more private, and more comfortable , and increases the human population at the expense of the lives of other creatures, large and small. some feeble resistance is sometimes offered, and many humans fantasize about leading adventurous and dangerous lives, and/or complain that humans are “destroying the earth”, but the trend seems inexorable. here is a prediction for the future of the human race, based entirely on extrapolation of these trends: humans will live in a few - or maybe just one - enormous city, protected from the “elements”. maybe in a single enormous building in the enormous city. the cities, or city, could be anywhere (including the moon or on another planet). “climate” will probably be irrelevant . every human will have their own space, and exactly the same amount of space. the humans will be cloned. or otherwise produced by technology. they might or might not have a certain life expectancy, but they will not go through any periods of “growth” or “decline”, and will not “grow up” or “age”. “sex” and “gender” will no longer exist. assuming that the humans will need such things as oxygen, protein, water, and heat, each will be provided with exactly the same amount. the provision of oxygen, protein, etc, will be maintained by technology which will run “itself”, “forever” ( i e, indefinitely). the same technology might be charged with devising the end of “time”, so that the existing order might literally last “forever”. no human will have any contact with any other human, thereby avoiding any possibility of “abuse”, “exploitation”, “hurtfulness”. etc. no human will have any power or authority over any other human. * what will these humans “do” all day, or at any time of day? what will they “think” about, if anything? obviously, they will not have to “do” anything to ensure their survival, and probably not have to “think” about anything , either. will they produce “art” of any kind? if they do, will the individual humans share the art with each other, or make any sort of “judgment” on each other’s art? this would seem to edge dangerously close to “oppression” or “exploitation” by implying that one human/artist is in some way “better” than another. will they engage in any sort of games or sports or competition, in order to “fill up” their days? even more than art, these things would seem to reopen a door to “inequality” and “inferiority”. * how accurate do i think these predictions might be? what do i think the probability is, that they will come true, either completely, or in some detail? the answer - zero. i do not think there is any chance at all that any of these things will come to pass. the biggest reason - they can be predicted. and if something can be predicted - predicted over decades or centuries, not weeks or months - it will not happen. i submit this as the first law of history.

prediction and possibility

the human race does not have an impressive track record of predicting the future. the future is most commonly predicted by extrapolating from the past and the present - from what is known, or thought to be known, about the past and the present. anything that has been unknown or unnoticed, that “comes out of nowhere”, is by definition, ignored. another factor is that predictions of the future are products of the human brain - i e, stories - and reflect the way human beings see the world - in binary terms, and in terms of direct, personal cause and effect. yet another factor, in considering change in what is regarded as the “political” element of human life, is that people, individually and collectively, are assumed to be motivated by “beliefs”. these beliefs can be regarded as either “deeply held” and difficult to change, or skin deep and readily changed by being exposed to the blinding glare of truth, but it is assumed that people have them, and can be expected to act on them. * all that being said , here are a few humble speculations - and some variations on those humble speculations. * twin specters are haunting the human race - the specters of automation and surveillance. it may seem ridiculous to call them “specters” as they are already here, but the question is whether they will completely “win” and “cover the earth”. a) will the day come when machines literally “do all the work” - and can maintain themselves “forever” (i e indefinitely) and no human will have to do any “necessary” work , but will have to find something - anything - to fill up their days? b) will the day come when no human has any privacy - when every human action is observed and recorded by “them”? c) will the day come when every human action and thought (including dreams) are recorded?. how close - in the year 2024 - do you think the world is to realizing any of these possibilities? a) it is practically there now b) it is all nonsense - all science fiction suitable for children and geekish boys - humans will always be humans, just as they were in the days of gilgamesh and achilles and king arthur and shakespeare and queen victoria c) somewhere in between, but closer to a) d) somewhere in between, but closer to b) e) other (specify) ___________________

splash

it had rained hard in the city all day, and brandon x was waiting patiently under his umbrella for the bus when a long black limousine passed him, narrowly missing the curb and soaking him with a huge wave of sprayed dirty water. the driver or owner of the limousine was obviously a person of power who felt no sympathy or fellowship for persons who did not own long black limousines and had to wait for buses or cabs, or just walked from one place to another. brandon knew that his blood should boil at such injustice, but he had always been a person who played the hand fate -or society - had dealt him, and never complained to the management. power is bad, he thought dolefully, and i wish i had some. but i do not, and that is that. * what do you think of brandon’ s attitude? a) it is my own b) it is pathetic - he should join some sort of organization to fight injustice, or at least raise his voice in protest or write a letter to a widely circulated publication, or vent his righteous anger on social media. c) it is contemptible - if he had an ounce of self-respect he would track down the owner of the limousine and kill him - for his own sake and to avenge the downtrodden everywhere. d) it is irrelevant - human society would not exist if the great mass of its inhabitants did not accept their fates. e) other (insert)

complete the sentence - you win the nobel prze for literature if you get 14 of these right

here are twenty beginnings and twenty completions of sentences. match the beginning with the completion. you win the nobel prize for literature if you can get 14 right. beginnings: 1. adam brown was a concerned democrat 2. lily webster thought she owned the earth 3. roy rafferty liked dogs better than people 4. omar khayyam put all his cards on the table 5. jesse james got off the bus at midnight 6. sam carter and paul bunyan got into a heated argument 7. sheriff frank morrison put out an all points bulletin 8. the man in the green hat and the red bow tie scratched his head 9. everybody laughed at poor king tut 10. don’t go, henry, adele begged 11. billy the kid came in third in the county spelling bee 12. )kathy martin hated paula montgomery 13. the barbarian woke up suddenly 14. a man with brown shoes walked down the dusty highway 15. rita jones had a new hairdo 16. come on out, luke! the captain shouted 17. a tear rolled down the scoutmaster’s cheek 18. father joe’s hand trembled as he opened the letter from the archbishop 19. the town just did not seem the same 20. i call them like i see them, mike fink stoutly asserted * completions: a) but ed ford had a great hunger for chaos b) since al davis came from home from college c) notwithstanding their grandmother’s curious will d) but the stock market crash put a stop to all that nonsense e) just as sadie green was wiping down the counter of the bluebird cafe f) but it turned out the american people had different ideas g) when whitey zane and blackie adams faced off h) because the gold watch was nowhere to be found i) after the train left the station at dawn j) but the lion hid out all day in the old red barn k) unfortuntely, it was too late l) for no good reason, it seemed m) but the girl was gone and was not coming back n) but there was nothing behind him on the road o) and it started to rain p) and then all hell broke loose q) he was down to his last twenty-five cents r) but slade had an ace up his sleeve s) and the wind had blown it all away t) come back, come back, everybody shouted

21 questions

1. do you believe that there are people who rule the world? 2. do you believe that there are people who rule the world and that these people, if they wished to, could order the complete reorganization of human society? 3. do you believe that human society needs to be completely reorganized? 4. do you believe that human society needs to be completely reorganized and that a world government needs to be established to do the reorganization? 5. do you believe that all humans should be free do what they want? 6. do you believe that all land stolen from indigenous peoples should be returned to them, and all colonial regimes be abolished? 7. if you believe that all land stolen from indigenous peoples should be returned to them, and that all colonial regimes be abolished, do you think that these goals are compatible with the establishment of a world government? 8. do you believe that hate speech should be outlawed? 9. if you believe that world government is a good idea, do you think that the world government should establish a department of information to combat disinformation, and/or a department of toleration to combat hatred? 10. do you think that churches or other organizations that oppose the personal freedoms of women or lbqtq people should be outlawed? 11. do you believe that all children should receive a good education? 12. if you believe that all children should receive a good education, do you think that decisions as to what constitutes the good education should be made by the world government, or by local governments of indigenous peoples? 13. do you believe that all children should have a healthy diet and good medical care? 14. if you believe that all children should have a healthy diet and good medical care, do you think that decisions as to what constitutes a healthy diet and good medical care should be made by the world government, or by local governments of indigenous peoples? 15. do you believe that all citizens, regardless of age, should be required to have a healthy diet and good medical care? 16. if you believe that all citizens, regardless of age, should be required to have a healthy diet and good medical care, do you think that decisions as to what constitutes a healthy diet and good medical care should be made by the world government, or by local governments of indigenous peoples? 17. do you believe that all colonial peoples should return to their original places of origin? 18. do you believe that all colonial peoples should be re-educated? 19. do you believe that guns, or other individually owned weapons or items that could be used as weapons, should be outlawed? 20. do you believe that scientific efforts to increase the life spans of humans should be encouraged? 21. do you believe that the human race can live forever?

a quiz - you have an i q of 400 if you get 13 of these right

1. gilgamesh was king of: a. uruk b. babylon c. the blues d. new york 2. joshua fought the battle of: a. jericho b. actium c. waterloo d. new orleans 3. king arthur was king of a. albion b. the holy roman empire c. the mountain d. atlantis 4. the last ruler of egypt before it was absorbed by the roman empire was: a. cleopatra i b. cleopatra ii c. clepoatra vii d. cleppatra xi 5. which of these famous persons lived the longest time ago? a. moses b. confucius c. plato d. napoleon 6. which of these individuals went on the first crusade? a. peter the hermit b. joan of arc c. richard the lion hearted d. napoleon 7. who was the last roman emperor? a. julius caesar b. constantine the great c. marcus aurelius d. romulus augustulus 8. who was the first emperor of the ming dynasty? a. mao zedong b. confucius c. zhu yuanzhang d. sun tzu 9. who threw shadrach, mesgach, and abednego into the fiery furnace? a. nebuchadnezzar i b. nebuchadnazzar ii c. salome d. jezebel 10. who write “the art of war”? a. mao zedong b. sun tzu c. ulysses s grant d. george s patton 11. who was the first roman emperor to commit suicide? a. julius caesar b. caligula c. nero d. marcus aurelius 12. which of these individuals did not go on the third crusade? a. joan of arc b. richard the lion hearted c. philip augustus d. frederick barbarossa 13. who killed cock robin? a. richard the lion hearted b. robin hood c. the sheriff of mottingham d. the sparrow 14. who wrote “a new way to pay old debts”? a, william shakespeare b. ben jonson c. philip massinger d. aphra behn 15. who surrendered to george washington at yorktown? a, george iii b. cornwallis c. the duke of wellington d. napoleon 16. who surrendered to grant at appomattox? a. stonewall jackson b. andrew jackson c. robert e lee d. john brown 17. who shot poor jesse james in the back? a, bob ford b. henry ford c. john wilkes booth d. theodore roosevelt 18. who wrote “the mystery of edwin drood”? a. agatha christie b. charles dickens c. queen victoria d. virginia woolf 19. how many home runs did babe ruth hit in 1919? a. 29 b. 39 c. 49 d, 59 20. what was joe dimaggio’s batting average in 1939? a. .321 b. .341 c. ,361 d. .381

a test

two people, ursula and victor, take a test, which consists of twenty multiple choice questions with four possible answers each. they take the test in separate windowless rooms. there are no other persons in the rooms while they take the test. ursula and vistotr may not leave their respective rooms while they take the test and they are not allowed any devices by which they can communicate with each other, or with which they can look up the answers. in any case, there are no right answers prior to the test being taken. the "correct" answers are chosen randomly by the tester while ursula and victor are in the act of taking the test. what do you think are the odds of ursula and victor getting the same answers to each question? there are four possible answers to each of the twenty questions. a) 1 in 2 b) 1 in 4 c) 1 in 20 d)1 in 80 e) 1 in greater than 80 here is the test: 1. alice’s favorite color is a. red b. yellow c. blue d. green 2. bob’s favorite food is a. pizza b. cheeseburgers c. french fries d. chocolate cake 3. corinne describes herself as a. a feminist b. a socialist c. an artist d. a lost soul 4. dave works as a a, delivery person b. bartender c. consultant d. personal assistant 5. elaine wants to a. conquer the world b. be a good person c. live forever d. see justice done 6. frank’s most often used expression is: a. whatever b. i don’t think so c. yeah right d. if you say so 7. greta has a pet a. hamster b. cat c. turtle d. pig 8. hassan is filled with: a. rage b. regret c. sorrow d. anomie 9. irene is a. a good person b. a bad person c. a methodist d. a presbyterian 10. jack thinks he is a. the universe’s gift to women b. the worlds luckiest person c. the world’s unluckiest person d. unfairly treated by the world 11. karla is a. a nasty person b. a housewife c. no longer speaking to kenneth d. molly’s best friend 12. larry wants to a, save the world b. write a bestselling novel c. be everybody’s friend d. be the most famous person in the world 13. maureen likes to a. take a nap every afternoon b. tell lies about mike c. eat chocolate cake and vanilla ice cream d. wiggle her toes 14. nick a. is sorry he was ever born b. thinks people should be nicer c. does not like yogurt d. is a yankees fan 15. oriana a. reads romance novels b. likes to walk in the rain c. is allergic to cats d. refuses to eat mushrooms 16. pete a. takes a nap every afternoon b. thinks all politicians are liars c. does not believe in climate change d. has big ears 17. ms quigley teaches a, french b. english c, biology d. history 18. ralph is a. a great guy b. a jerk c. a psychopath d. a dreamer 19. susie is a. sensitive b. sweet c. charming d. boring 20. tony is a. ready but rough b. debonair c. his mother’s pride and joy d. just a guy